SurveyMonkey’s Electoral map allows you to explore 2016 Presidential Election poll results, create and share your own predictions for the upcoming election. For those who want more there are tools to go deeper, examine the state level-patterns in voters demographics and assess alternative views of the likely electorate.
Using an interactive map, anyone can try to figure out who will win on November 8. The map not only provides real-time polling results on a state-by-state basis, it also breaks results down based on demographics such as age, sex, race, income, education, gender, and even generation.
The default view of our map is color coded to represent what our state-level poll snapshot says about the race in each state. We color the map BLUE when Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 3 percentage points or better, and RED where Trump leads Clinton by 3 or better. States are GRAY, or “Toss-Ups” when the Clinton-Trump margin falls within 3 percentage points either way. All surveys are subject to random variability, so the three-point threshold best represents the potential for shifts to be random. The count above the map shows how these results translate into all-important Electoral College votes.
The underlying poll results showing the share of the vote for Clinton and Trump can be found in the table that appears near the map.
Want to apply your own assumptions about how the toss-up states will end up voting? Have a hunch that a particular state may flip from one candidate to another before election day? Just start clicking on states to create your own map. Click it to switch from blue (for Clinton) to red (for Trump). Watch how your predictions change the total Electoral Vote count at the top. You can click the “reset” button above the table at any time to go back to our default poll findings.
It’s easy to share the results of our map on social media, whether you want to tell your friends about our latest findings or share your own predictions. Just click the buttons above the results table to share on Facebook, Twitter, or LinkedIn.
For true poll junkies, our map provides tools to consider alternative cuts of the data. You can look at how different “likely voter” filters and weighting affect the results and look at what might happen if all votes were cast by certain demographic groups. Just pull down the “Select Map” menu that appears just above the data table and try out the options. We’ll likely be adding more as the election approaches, and we’ll offer more explanation and analysis in this space in the coming days.
We have standard filters, and additional ones we add regularly to explore.
- Likely voters (LV): Our default view of only those who have already voted, are absolutely certain to vote, or have a large change of voting select this filter.
- Registered voters (RV): Our broader aperture view of all registered voters in the U.S., regardless of their likelihood of voting.
- Likely voters – turnout adjusted: This filter adjusts voters to turnout factors published here. In addition to using the turnout adjusted weighting targets, this filter only shows voters who have already voted, are absolutely certain to vote, or have a large change of voting.
- The remaining demographic filters (age, education, etc.) are based on likely voters, our default view.
No one is collecting and publishing more high quality survey data at the state and national level than the Elections Team at SurveyMonkey.