For the third consecutive year, smartphone shipments will decline worldwide. A further decline certainly, but less than in 2018 when IDC estimated it at 4.1%, speaking of the “worst year” for these terminals.

The firm expects in 2019 a decline of 1.9% of global deliveries. And the factors explaining this trend remain largely unchanged. The market suffers in particular from its high saturation in developed countries.

A 5G effect, but from 2020

IDC also sees a slowdown in renewal in some emerging markets, which until now allowed manufacturers to maintain sales growth. However, a return to growth is emerging on the horizon, analysts say.

Moreover, the deterioration of deliveries should decrease in the second half of the year. If in the first half of 2019, they fell by 5.5%, IDC anticipates growth of 1.4% in the second half of the year.

The firm explains this rebound by the acceleration of 5G technology, a growing selection of premium terminals at lower prices and continued growth in markets such as India, a country coveted by Apple, without much success at all. day.

For the Cupertino company, it is also an additional year of decline that looms. In 2018, the now ex-second world manufacturer had limited the breakage to -3.2%. In the last two quarters, Apple has seen its sales plummet – enough to justify the decision of the company to no longer report sales figures?

The trend will continue throughout the year, says IDC. The manufacturer is expected to sell 183.5 million iPhones this year, against more than 200 million a year earlier (-12.1%). And Apple should not benefit from a 5G effect anytime soon.

Unlike some of its rivals, the manufacturer will not launch iPhone 5G in 2019. This ‘gap’, however, will not be the first factor explaining the decline in sales. Consumer adoption will also remain modest (0.5% of shipments in 2019 and 26.3% in 2023).

Tolerance to high prices falling

Interestingly, IDC finds that to maintain or even expand iOS’s worldwide market share and generate revenue, Apple is significantly expanding the sale of refurbished smartphones. The giant Cupertino can thus control prices and convince consumers unwilling to pay the price of a new iPhone.

But selling high-end smartphone at a high cost is no more complicated just for Apple. IDC notes that customer tolerance for these products continues to fall.

The inflation of these last years among the flagships of the sector does not pass anymore. The challenge for manufacturers is therefore to reconcile tariff moderation and functionality. Because on this point, “the demands of the consumers (…) do not stop increasing.”

“With 5G on the horizon and exciting new form factors, it will be crucial for suppliers to continue to bring affordable products to market growth.”

In the Android universe, the average price continues to grow, while being at a level well below that of the iPhone (about 700 dollars). IDC estimates that the ASP will increase in 2019 from 5.8% to 269 dollars.