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A new strain of COVID-19 has been identified with a mortality rate of up to 82 percent

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The mortality rate of a new strain of coronavirus is up to 82 percent, especially in the age range over 45 years old.

The findings indicate that the variant is significantly more transmissible and immune escape-prone than previously circulating variants, and that it can increase the infection fatality rate in older adults by 62–82%.

The results of the study are currently available on the medRxiv* preprint server.

SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.526, also known as the lota variant, was first identified in November 2020 in New York City. Subsequently, the variant was discovered in all 52 states of the United States, as well as in 27 countries worldwide.

This variant is moderately resistant to neutralization by therapeutic monoclonal antibodies and vaccine/infection-induced antibodies, as demonstrated in a laboratory study. By contrast, evidence suggests that the variant does not increase the risk of developing a new infection in previously vaccinated or infected individuals.

The current study analysed multiple epidemiological and population datasets collected in New York City and used mathematical modelling to determine the B.1.526 variant’s transmission rate, immune evasion ability, and risk of infection fatality.

Using a network model-inference system, the researchers estimated the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and population-level variables and parameters in New York City. They conducted a city-level multivariant, age-structured modelling analysis using the collected data to estimate changes in infection and immune evasion ability for the B.1.526 variant. The final analysis used data from two models to calculate the variant-specific mortality rate among SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals (infection fatality risk).

They also built the network model-inference system using multiple epidemiological and vaccination datasets. Similarly, the multivariant model analysis used four weekly datasets that included confirmed and suspected COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, mortality, and the percentage of various SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in New York City.

At the end of the first pandemic wave, the population-level prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection was estimated to be 16.6 percent in New York City. Similarly, the estimated prevalence at the end of the second wave was 41.7 percent. While the majority of infections occurred in the elderly during the first wave, the second wave infected people of all ages.

During the second pandemic wave, a rapid increase in B.1.526-infected cases was observed. Prior to the variant being identified for the first time in a specific neighbourhood in early November 2020, a gradual increase in the overall SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate in the same neighbourhood was observed.

Between November 2020 and February 2021, the transmission rate remained high, before returning to baseline levels when the B.1.526 variant became dominant in the city. In other neighbourhoods, on the other hand, the transmission rate remained constant. In general, these observations indicate that the increase in transmission rate in that neighbourhood is most likely due to the B.1.526 variant’s early rapid spread.

According to the data collected, the transmission rate of the B.1.526 variant is 15–25% greater than that of previously circulating variants. Additionally, the data revealed that the variant is capable of causing breakthrough infections in 0–10% of the population. From November 2020 to March 2021, the B.1.526 variant became dominant in New York City due to this moderate increase in transmissibility and immune evasion ability. Following that, as the more infectious variant B.1.1.7 became more prevalent, the prevalence of the B.1.526 variant gradually decreased.

Despite a reduction in mortality following mass vaccination, New York City’s second pandemic wave was estimated to have an increase in infection fatality rates.

According to the scientists’ estimations of variant-specific infection and mortality rates, the B.1.526 variant increases infection fatality rates by 46 percent, 82 percent, and 62 percent, respectively, in individuals aged 45–64 years, 65–74 years, and over 75 years.

Compared to previously circulating variants, the B.1.526 variant, overall, caused a 60% induction in the infection fatality rate. This induction was comparable to that estimated for the B.1.1.7 variant.

In comparison to previously circulating variants, the B.1.526 variant increased the infection fatality rate by 60 percent. This was comparable to the induction observed for the B.1.1.7 variant.

Image Credit: NIAID

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