Republicans dissatisfied with Donald Trump to create a separate party? How would this become possible and what it can lead to?
America is divided. This fact is no longer in doubt. The new head of the White House, Joe Biden, has announced his intention to restore unity to the nation, but speeches are unlikely to stop the growth of polarization.
Perhaps a successful coronavirus vaccination campaign will help the new president soften the resistance of at least some of the 74 million voters who voted for Donald Trump in November (about 81 million votes were cast for Biden himself). However, the link between the effects of the pandemic and political preferences is not at all obvious.
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Of the 370 U.S. municipalities hardest hit by COVID-19, 93% voted for Trump, who has largely failed to fight the pandemic. An interesting example is the Spanish-speaking municipalities of southern Texas on the border between the United States and Mexico, which have been hit hardest by both the pandemic itself and the resulting economic downturn. However, the number of Trump supporters in them has increased since the 2016 elections. Despite all of the often racist statements by the now-former US president, in percentage terms, his nationwide support has grown among nearly all minorities, including African Americans and gays.
When discussing the division of American society, one should carefully look at the political situation that has developed in the country and note the division of America not even into two, but into three camps:
Supporters of the Democratic Party (red);
supporters of the moderate conservative wing of the Republican Party, now represented by Mitt Romney and formerly by John McCain (blue);
Trump’s most loyal supporters:
The confrontation between the two factions of the Great Old Party, as the Republican Party is also called in the United States itself, could be traced by how the votes of its members were divided when discussing Trump’s impeachment in the House of Representatives and the Senate: the majority of Republicans continued to support him even after the events in the Capitol on January 6 this year.
On the other hand, just the other day, it was reported that on February 5 more than 120 politicians, who were previously officials from the Republican Party and dissatisfied with Trump’s policies and the reaction of the incumbent Republicans to it, gathered at a conference to discuss the creation of a new center-right party that will be built on the values of “principled conservatism”.
The Democratic Party also has divisions between moderate members and the more left wing, but these divisions are much less intense than what can be seen among Republicans. In addition, the Democratic majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives, not to mention the president himself, will allow them to smooth out internal party contradictions and conflicts simply by redistributing power and resources. Republicans do not have such an opportunity. This is compounded by the fact that their internal conflicts are often linked to racial animosity towards opposing groups. The issues of identity and self-determination, as we know, are very difficult to solve.
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One of the key factors in Donald Trump’s political strength was that during his presidency, moderate Republicans were unable to mobilize a sufficiently powerful coalition to strengthen their position. The former White House chief has combined racial-based rhetoric and politics with calls for a reallocation of economic resources and a furious personal animosity towards Hillary Clinton. This attracted a majority of the GOP members and a sufficient number of non-partisans to secure his victory in the 2016 election. By 2020, Trump’s behavior and decisions turned both of them away from him, leaving only the most ardent supporters among allies, and raised the question of the future of the Republican Party as a whole.
It is unlikely for the foreseeable future that Trump or the moderates of the Republican party elite, including those who are discussing the new center-right party (although they intend to nominate their own candidates), will be able to win any elections at the national level. At the same time, the Trumpists are so active and popular at the local and state level that the former head of the White House will retain a fairly high level of influence in the future. Thus, branches of the Republican Party in Arizona, South Carolina, Oregon, and other states sharply attacked party members who either contradicted Trump or voted to impeach him or simply recognized the negative election results for him.
Trump will actively confront his enemies and opponents and support the most loyal supporters, who could subsequently blur the chances of success for the entire Republican Party or lead to the victory of candidates with an even more radical ideology.
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The Trump faction is now shifting so actively and rapidly to the far right flank of the political spectrum that moderate Republican centrists are under intense pressure, with the idea that the next few elections will be decisive for the future of the party as a whole. This is what the recent conference of supporters of the creation of a separate center-right party should be linked. In light of future congressional elections in November 2022, Donald Trump’s main efforts in the coming weeks and months will be centered around the threat of such a new party emerging, or even more likely, supporting party candidates who will run in the primaries or general elections against his opponents. for example, those who supported his impeachment in the House of Representatives or in the Senate.
The former head of the White House has neither the personal nor the organizational resources to create a completely new party that will be able to nominate its candidates in all 50 states. However, he does not need it. His views on migration and social transformation, adherence to political theories and ideas outside the mainstream, and a clear predisposition to conservative values and tools mean that his electoral base is motivated by a single element – his own figure. Donald Trump enjoys significant voter support (about 30% nationwide). In this situation, he needs to concentrate his efforts on the Republicans opposing him in order to limit their influence and reformat the entire party to suit his interests.
Meanwhile, from the point of view of foreign policy (in general and in relation to Russia in particular), the current situation makes us expect the preservation of the principles formulated by Barack Obama for several electoral cycles in Congress. Control over legislative bodies in the United States may at some stage pass to the Republicans, which will lead to a slowdown in Washington’s international activity, but demographic changes within America and the rift in the Republican camp will affect all aspects of the foreign and domestic policy of the United States.