Joe Biden began his presidency with a vision for Covid-19 relief, infrastructure investment, and the expansion of government safety nets.
Biden’s public approval rating has fallen into net-negative territory for the first time, as a messy withdrawal from Afghanistan, a spike in inflation, and concerns about the spread of the Covid-19 delta variant have eroded public confidence in the Biden administration, particularly among independent voters.
While some of his proposals, such as pandemic relief, have become law, the future of the remaining of his agenda is far from certain, with Democratic infighting and near-universal Republican opposition posing formidable obstacles.
While Mr Biden makes a high-profile impression at this year’s U.N. General Assembly, the world and the country will be watching and reflecting on some of the major issues he faces.
The challenges present opportunities for political renewal, but also the possibility of further sinking into the political abyss.
Biden’s ‘back up’ plan
Democrats unveiled a two-step plan earlier this year to enact Biden’s legislative agenda for the first half of his presidency.
The first was a bipartisan package of infrastructure spending. The Senate passed it in August, and the House has put it on hold. It awaits action alongside the second component of Biden’s plan, a multi-trillion-dollar grab-bag that includes provisions for childcare, education, healthcare, elder care, family leave, and the environment, among other things.
The plans, labelled Biden’s “build back better” and “caring economy” visions, together form the administration’s make-or-break objective for this year.
The second package could be approved by Congress with only Democratic votes – but getting those Democrats to agree on the bill’s size and scope is proving to be a formidable task.
This schism within the Democratic Party is perhaps best expressed by the public war of words currently raging in the U.S. Senate.
Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a prominent centrist, has stated categorically that he will oppose any spending package that exceeds $1.5 trillion. The senator from coal country is concerned about the environmental impact and believes that tax increases would reduce the US’s global competitiveness.
Former Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who has done more to energize the liberal grass-roots than any politician in decades, said his party has already backed down from a $6 trillion plan and will accept no less than $3.5 trillion. He is especially interested in expanding the government-run healthcare system for the elderly. It could be a first step toward transforming Medicare into a universal health insurance programme for all Americans.
With little room for error, any senator – or faction within the party – could dash hopes of any spending bill passing in the closely divided Congress.
Mr Biden will have to keep everyone happy – or at the very least manageable unhappy – within the Democratic tent.
Complicating matters further is the fact that the US debt ceiling must be increased and the next fiscal year’s budget must be approved in the coming weeks to avoid a government shutdown. If either encounters a snag, it has the potential to derail Mr Biden’s delicate legislative dance.
Abortion Law
This was supposed to be 2022’s most controversial political issue, as the US Supreme Court prepares to hear a case challenging a Mississippi law prohibiting abortion after the 15th week of pregnancy.
Rather than that, a Texas six-week ban accelerated everyone’s timeline due to the novel use of private citizens as law enforcers. By allowing the law to take effect, the Supreme Court sent the strongest signal yet that it may be on the verge of overturning Roe v Wade, the landmark case that established the right to abortion, and allowing states to severely restrict or even outlaw abortion in their jurisdictions.
This possibility has increased the pressure on Mr Biden and his party to enshrine abortion rights protections in federal law before the US devolves into a patchwork of state-level regulations and prohibitions.
Although the administration has sued Texas on its own, abortion rights advocates want the White House to coordinate congressional action. Republicans in the Senate may ultimately block the effort.
However, a fight could help Democrats reintroduce themselves to their core voters ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. The Texas law would prohibit abortion before many women are aware they are pregnant and would make no exceptions for rape or incest – a position that has garnered little support in the United States. By emphasizing the issue, the president may be able to reclaim some of the moderates who defected this summer.
However, if Mr Biden is perceived to be insufficiently engaged, an abortion defeat could demoralize his Democratic base.
SARS-COV-2 and Delta Variant
The Biden White House has long recognised that the administration’s success is contingent upon its ability to effectively manage the Covid-19 pandemic. For a time, it appeared almost like events were deviating from their normal course.
In July, the president announced that the United States was on the verge of declaring its “independence” from the virus. Then the delta variant took hold, clogging hospital emergency rooms with patients who had declined an abundant, free, and effective vaccine.
This prompted the president to shift his tone, blaming the 25percent of the population that remained unvaccinated for putting the country at risk – and ordering vaccine-or-testing requirements for 100 million American workers.
Much of the primary focus was on how the unvaccinated would respond to the pressure, as Republicans rallied to their defence, promising lawsuits and political resistance.
However, polls since then have consistently shown clear majorities in favour of the president. 58 percent of respondents to a Morning Consult survey supported a vaccine or test mandate for private businesses with more than 100 employees. Similar numbers support the requirement for vaccines for public employees and a large number of healthcare workers. Independent voter support for both measures exceeded 60percent in an Ipsos survey.
These figures suggest that the Democratic Party’s fight against vaccine mandates could be a winning political issue.
The left closely monitored the recall election results in California, where the Democratic governor touted his tough Covid response and bolstered once-dwindling support.
Democrats may interpret his victory as evidence that strict mitigation efforts are an appealing way out of their current political rut. However, for Mr Biden’s benefit, being tough must be followed by results.
Withdrawal from Afghanistan
As previously stated, Mr Biden’s political standing has suffered significantly as a result of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The president’s approval ratings have plummeted from levels that would be the envy of most recent White House occupants to levels that hover somewhere between electoral success and failure.
While the White House may hope that the chaos surrounding the Afghan withdrawal loses political clout over time, there are numerous potential sources of further trouble. If Afghanistan becomes a haven for Islamic militants, if American citizens still in the country face danger, or if the Taliban regime brings down US allies in the region, the president’s public image may continue to suffer.
Meanwhile, Republicans – from Donald Trump on down – are determined to maintain this as a partisan issue. They are calling for Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s resignation and (along with some Democrats) are requesting additional information about the circumstances surrounding the decision to stick with what proved to be a risky withdrawal timeline.
Expect to hear a lot about Afghanistan on the campaign trail for the midterm elections.
Foreign Affairs
While Mr Biden is preoccupied with domestic issues, the rest of the world is not sitting ideal.
International affairs were supposed to be Mr Biden’s presidential sweet spot, having served as vice president for eight years and as a member of the Senate foreign relations committee for decades.
However, experience does not always imply effortless success.
The US has had to play diplomatic damage control in the last week, after a much-heralded agreement between the US, Australia, and the UK enraged the French, who lost a multibillion-dollar submarine deal to the Australians as a result.
European Union leaders who may have expected the Biden administration to reverse course from the Trump years of “America first” were taken aback. The US agreement cemented an alliance with a Trump-friendly post-Brexit United Kingdom, while also securing the type of multibillion-dollar arms deal that the previous administration frequently touted.
While few American voters are likely concerned with the strength of US-French relations, the conflict could have ramifications for the president’s political agenda. He is banking on European cooperation at the upcoming global climate summit – and the environment is a top priority for many voters, particularly among the Democratic base.
All of this means that Mr Biden will be swamped with feather-smoothing duties during this week’s United Nations General Assembly meetings. The US government’s recent announcement that it would reopen its borders to vaccinated European travellers in November may be the beginning of a favor-currying bonanza.
Photo by Al Drago/Getty Images