Professor Allan Lichtman predicted the victory of five US presidents, including Trump, but now his defeat awaits.
Allan Lichtman, a professor at the American University in Washington, who predicted the victory of five presidents, made a forecast for the US presidential election in November, according to nytimes.
To determine the winner, the historian uses his own “13 Keys” system, which evaluates factors such as the economy, the position held, social unrest and scandals, and the personal charisma of candidates.
“The secret is to keep an eye on the big picture. And ignore polls, analytics, the daily ups and downs of ratings,” Lichtman says.
Speaking about the upcoming elections, he suggested that the current head of state would lose the White House. Thus, he predicted victory for the Democratic candidate Joe Biden.
Lichtman has predicted election outcomes since 1984. The only prediction that did not come true relates to the Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore. The historian predicted his victory in 2000, and Gore could have won the popular vote if the Supreme Court had not ruled to stop the recount of Florida voters, in connection with which the presidency went to George W. Bush.
Earlier, the British magazine Economist, using a mathematical model, predicted Joe Biden’s victory in the US elections with a 91% probability.