2019 has probably been the busiest year in the United Kingdom since a majority voted to leave the European Union. This decoder tries to solve some doubts
2019 has probably been the busiest year in the United Kingdom since a majority voted to leave the European Union more than three years ago. This decoder tries to solve some doubts about the past, present and future of the country after the absolute majority of Boris Johnson a week ago.
What happened before the elections?
Against all odds, Boris Johnson managed to renegotiate a new Withdrawal Agreement with the EU last October. That of his predecessor Theresa May was rejected up to three times in the House of Commons.
The three pillars of the pact have not changed: divorce bill for London of between 40 and 45 billion euros; guarantee of the rights of around three million community residents on British soil and avoid a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland so as not to jeopardize the peace achieved in the Ulster in 1998
The main difference with respect to May’s pact addresses this last issue. While the ‘ex-premier’ wanted to leave the entire United Kingdom within the customs union until a commercial agreement was closed, Johnson advocates removing the country from the customs union to close trade agreements with third parties but leaves Northern Ireland at the same time aligned with community regulations. The ‘Tory’ defends that there will now be no controls in the Irish Sea, but government documents indicate otherwise. We will see how this issue is now resolved.
Was the agreement voted?
Johnson’s biggest obsession was to fulfil his promise to get the UK out of the EU for Halloween. Hence, he organized an extraordinary session on Saturday, October 19 for the honourable members to ratify the agreement. It was called “Super Saturday,” the first extraordinary session on the weekend since the Falklands War of 1982. But finally, there was no vote.
The honourable members approved instead of the amendment submitted by the ‘EU rebel’ tory ‘ Oliver Letwin, which forced Johnson to request a new extension to Brussels. The Twenty-seven were granted until January 31, 2020.
After the extension, Brexit Law
Once a new extension was secured that would end the ghosts of the feared abrupt departure, on October 22, the House of Commons approved – by 329 votes in favor against 299 in contracting the green light for the processing of the Brexit Law (which includes the Withdrawal Agreement and legitimizes the divorce itself). It was tremendously significant. For the first time since the tortuous process began in 2016, deputies managed to carry out a divorce plan.
However, immediately afterwards, they rejected – by 308 votes in favor against 322 votes against – the motion that the Government had submitted to carry out all the procedures by the fast track. Specifically, Johnson wanted to leave everything settled in the Lower House in three days in order to achieve divorce for Halloween. But their lordships didn’t want to hurry.
Early elections are called
Therefore, early elections are called for December 12 where Johnson sweeps. It now has an absolute majority of 80 seats.
The exit of the EU will be the star measure that the Government announces in its program for the legislature that will officially open on Thursday with the so-called Queen’s Speech. Normally the ceremony has pomp and pageantry, but from Palacio, it has already been warned that, on this occasion, it will be a smaller ceremony. After all, less than three months ago the sovereign announced the policies that Boris Johnson had planned to carry out after he moved to Downing Street in July after winning the Conservative Party primaries.
Friday, Brexit Law
With no time to lose, at the expense of the so-called Mr Speaker, the Executive intends to present this Friday in the House of Commons, the so-called “Brexit Law” that includes the new Withdrawal Agreement that The premier closed with the EU.
With the beginning of the new legislature, the processing of the regulations must now begin again. In any case, with an absolute majority of up to 80 deputies, the premier does not now have to fear the opposition and the pro-EU rebels of his own ranks, since all the Torie candidates who were running for these elections, He signed a commitment to now support his plans regarding the historic divorce.
The ratification of the law is expected for the second half of January. It cannot be rushed until the last moment, because the Withdrawal Agreement must also be ratified by the European Parliament.
After January 31, everything remains the same
From 1 February, a transition period will begin, which will last at least until December 2020, where the United Kingdom will continue to be a member of the single market (with the freedom of movement of people that implies) and the customs union although without having already No voice or vote.
Future UK-EU relations
Psychologically, the exit of the block will be a great step for both sides of the English Channel. But at all, divorce will be banned, since during the transition period the even more complicated negotiations on future relations between the United Kingdom and the EU will begin.
The transition period can be extended one or two years as long as it is communicated before July 1, 2020, to the EU. The Tory manifesto promises not to extend this period beyond December 2020. And that is when, again, the ghost of the chaotic rupture will appear. It seems materially impossible to negotiate in just eleven months, future relationships that, apart from the commercial pact, should address other areas such as security or student exchange. Less ambitious trade agreements between the bloc and countries such as Ukraine, Canada, North Korea, Japan or Singapore have taken an average of four to nine years to negotiate and ratify. So it is not ruled out new extensions of deadlines.
Apart from negotiating the agreement future relationships, this has to be ratified. If it is a simple one, only with tariffs and little else, it can be by the quick procedure. But if it includes services (a sector that represents 80% of the British economy ), it would have to pass in addition to the European Parliament, through all the national parliaments of the Twenty-seven and a few regional