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Trump’s ultimate plan of revenge: back to the White House in three steps

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Donald Trump is touring the United States again, including a stop at the Wall in Mexico. With his campaign appearances, the ex-president is pursuing three goals. If he reaches it, it would be a shock to his opponents – and the fulfilment of his ultimate plan of revenge.

He did not say whether he will run again in 2024, although everyone has been waiting for this moment. Donald Trump is back. Of course, his fan base chanted loudly: “Four more years”. When Trump recently made his first big appearance in Ohio – opening the 2022 election campaign to win both houses of Congress – twenty thousand followers allegedly came and saw a rather joyless Donald Trump, who they liked best when he copied himself.

Donald Trump: Back to power on immigration

It was not surprising that he didn’t leave his successor good. It is also understandable that he would like to issue immigration policy on the big issue for the next two years. 

On this issue, Republican anger quickly boils up and this is where the Biden Administration has its biggest construction site for which it has no plan. Even more: when it comes to immigration, the differences in the democratic camp are most decisive. Biden is under tough pressure from progressives to let more people into the country and has already given in to the pressure.

This is the starting point for Trump to address all other topics. From economic losses to the abuse of social services to questions of crime and the praise of the security organs, he connects everything with the topic of immigration. 

The Republican candidates will be copying and singing these topics for a year, because hardly anyone will be elected to Congress against Trump. Ohio also had a signal effect in this regard, because a local MP who voted against Trump in impeachment should be punished. A candidate loyal to Trump runs.

The real party leader: Trump is pursuing three goals with his rally

Donald Trump is pursuing three goals with his campaign appearances, which will also lead him to the wall in Mexico. 

First, he wants to consolidate his status as the informal but insurmountable leader of the Republican Party. He doesn’t have the office, but he is and wants to stay that way. That can only be done through those who support him politically, his electorate. Over 74 million voters voted for Trump in 2020. Not enough to win, but more than any other Republican presidential candidate.

Three quarters of them also say that Joe Biden only got into the White House through fraud. You stand firmly by Trump. He wants to mobilize them now, so that all Republican candidates for the next congressional elections, when the House of Representatives and a third of the senators are elected, know: It depends on Trump. 

He would prefer that they then not even run for the primaries. It has happened several times before. That brings a faction loyal to Trump into parliament and at the same time spares the election campaign budget.

Maintain a positive image

Second, Trump has to preserve his public reputation, which is always endangered by the fact that confidential information from his term in office is divulged – sending infected people to Guantanamo, for example – and he appears in the media above all in the context of possible accusations. It is not unusual that scandals are invoked after a previous administration. Only the resigned presidents have not wanted to go back to the White House for a hundred years and could sit it out. Trump has to give his supporters a positive image again so that they don’t get other thoughts.

No election victory without money: Trump’s donation machine has to keep running

Third, it’s about money because American election campaigns are always about money and because Donald Trump is always about money. The donation machine has to keep running and since Trump’s attempts to be remembered via “social media” have failed, he now has to go into the field. Then he will continue to be reported on. Trump wants to become daily news again. 

Because the intensifying media coverage that picked up and scandalized or celebrated tweet after tweet is now missing. The big companies have banned him from their platforms. Most recently he tried to copy Twitter from his homepage in order to speak directly to the American people “from the president’s desk”. It flopped so much that the attempt was stopped. He’s missing his megaphone.

Unrestricted within the party: Trump means votes – and votes mean mandate, money and influence

It is all the more astonishing that he is still so present after the loud microphone was virtually knocked out of his hand. In any case, more present than the MPs who wanted to rid the Republican Party of him. This attempt has failed in the last few months. Within the party, Trump will therefore not be challenged in the next few years. 

On the contrary. The number of his supporters among the party functionaries has grown and nobody wants to do without him as an election campaigner. Trump means votes and votes mean a mandate, money and influence. As long as his voters stand by him, he has nothing to fear in the party.

And 2024? In some polls, Trump is already ahead

The question remains: will he run again in 2024? After all, a quarter of Americans believed Trump to be the really elected president in May 2021 and, as ipsos discovered, wanted him to run again. That is a sufficient basis on which to base an election campaign. But the support of his electorate, which has declined slightly, must not continue to decline.

American voters are already being asked whether they would vote for Harris or Trump in 2024. At Echelon Insights, Harris beats Trump with 47 to 40 percent. McLaughin determined a different result: Trump is ahead with 49 to 45 percent (survey on June 16 and 18, 2021). 

Trump is slightly behind against Biden, but the current president does not go beyond approval ratings of 49 to 56 per cent. That’s solid, but not excessive. And if two presidents compete against each other, the incumbent and a former, it would have its very own political aura.

Trump’s revenge is sweet: if he stays healthy, he’ll run again

When Trump looks at the current situation, he sees that he is still the most popular Republican, that no one in the party can stand out against him and succeed, and the support of the Republican base is unbroken. 

Trump continues to propagate that his election has been stolen. It is well known that he thinks revenge is sweet. If nothing fundamentally changes in the overall political situation and his health, Trump will run again. That makes one side cheer and the other tremble.

Photo by The Asahi Shimbun via Getty Images

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