The Pentagon nixed the notion of NATO nations supplying Ukraine with Soviet-built MiG-29 fighter jets on Wednesday.
After days of heavy lobbying by Ukraine for such jets and a debate between the US and Poland about how such a transaction may materialize, the US reversed its prior support for delivering planes to Ukraine. The event represented the first major rift among the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which is assisting Ukraine in its fight against Russian forces.
According to Pentagon press secretary John Kirby, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with his Polish counterpart on Wednesday and “stressed we do not support the transfer of additional fighter aircraft to the Ukrainian Air Force at this time.”
The Pentagon’s move came a day after Poland surprised Washington by announcing that it would make its Soviet-built MiG-29 combat fighters accessible to the US, but not to Ukraine directly. Rather than sending the jets to Ukraine, Poland proposed that they fly hundreds of kilometers in the opposite way to Germany’s Ramstein air base.
Washington was surprised by the proposal.
White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Wednesday: “I think it’s pretty clear, it doesn’t require a military expert to understand why having planes fly from a U.S. air base into a contested part of a country where there is a war is not in our interest and not in NATO interests.”
Mr. Kirby of the Pentagon quickly labeled the proposal “high risk” and stated that it would not “significantly change the effectiveness of the Ukrainian Air Force relative to Russian capabilities.”
As Vice President Kamala Harris travels to Poland, a quarrel between two close NATO partners has erupted. “how best to provide a variety of security assistance to Ukraine” is on the agenda, according to a senior administration official.
Since Russia’s invasion, NATO has mainly worked in lockstep to assist Ukraine in repelling Russian forces, supplying weaponry to the neighboring country and dispatching reinforcements to the alliance’s eastern front to safeguard members. In addition, NATO is beginning to pay attention to Poland’s and other Central European countries’ long-standing requests for permanent bases to boost defenses.
After weeks of pleading with Western countries for armaments, the subject of the planes came to the surface. As Russian helicopters and fighter jets bombed Ukrainian cities, government officials pleaded with friends to give weapons to shoot down the planes.
Providing combat jets to Ukraine in what would be the highest-profile arms transfer from the West began as a low-level subject of conversation among European forces. It was made public 10 days ago when European Union foreign policy leader Josep Borrell made a fleeting mention to those conversations. He announced on Feb. 27 that “We are going to supply arms and even fighter jets.”
At the time, Polish officials stated technical discussions were taking place but were intended to be kept private. Officials were examining whether the planes might be secretly carried across Ukraine’s eastern border, avoiding the risk of igniting a larger conflict that may directly involve NATO.
To some, the plan was always doomed to fail. “Turning a NATO jet into something Ukrainians could fly would mean ripping out hugely complicated systems,” a senior American military industry official in Poland warned. He noted that part of the equipment isn’t transferred outside the alliance and would have to be removed from the jets before handing them over to the Ukrainians. Warsaw equipped its MiGs with systems so allies could identify the planes as friendly and communicate securely, he said.
“If there were a plan to do so,” he remarked, “this would be at least a multi-month project, even operating at warp speed.”
Ukrainian pilots would likely adapt to the Polish jets fast, but that doesn’t guarantee they’d be capable of flying the MiGs in combat, according to Justin Bronk, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “It is a question of if they could be combat effective immediately? Probably not,” he answered, adding that achieving that level of proficiency would take weeks.
Despite this, the discussions continued.
Even after Mr. Borrell’s comment, Polish diplomats and defense officials quietly investigated whether and how it could be done, for over a week later. Despite a series of carefully worded denials from Poland’s administration, it was clear that the country would not be allowing its airfields to be utilized by Ukrainian forces.
Two Polish officials claimed they had privately discussed the possibility of an innovative solution. One speculative suggestion was to move the planes via road.
Poland, Bulgaria, and Slovakia, all NATO members, fly MiG-29s, a plane that Ukrainian pilots are familiar with. Poland was the only country that really contemplated donating its MiGs.
One of Poland’s main concerns was that it didn’t want to be seen as donating its jets unilaterally, and instead wanted US and NATO support. This would shield Israel from reprisal from Russia, its historical adversary. The government planned to keep the conversations under wraps.
It all changed when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made an impassioned plea to Congress for help getting more lethal military aid. He asked for Russian-made jet fighters that Ukrainian pilots could fly and other things. The appeal drew support from a number of US lawmakers. Among others, Sen. Dick Durbin (D., Ill.), the No. 2 Senate Democrat, stated that the United States should assist in the aircraft handover.
After meeting with Polish officials on Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. had approved a MiG transfer to Ukraine and was looking for ways to get Poland new planes, too.
Mr. Blinken’s words, according to Polish authorities, effectively left it up to Poland to choose between denying Ukraine the jets it wants or donating them—a gesture Moscow would regard as an act of war. The use of foreign airfields by Ukraine would be “a very undesirable and potentially dangerous scenario,” according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
“Poland was expected to cut a third of its Air Force to please some Twitter crowd or some American pundits,” said Slawomir Debski, director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs. “And then allies would blame us, and say that we triggered the Third World War and dragged the alliance into a war with Russia.”
By Tuesday, Polish authorities were fed up with conflicting messages about whether the concept should be debated so openly. Warsaw was concerned that Poland was being pushed out on a perilous limb without the support of the United States. And it couldn’t stand being painted as the stumbling block to the jets taking off, according to a senior Polish government official. Poland is one of Ukraine’s strongest allies inside NATO. They met to fight back, an official said. Soon after, Poland made an offer, offering the planes in exchange for old American planes. They also urged other NATO partners to release their MiGs.
On Wednesday, Ms. Psaki described the previous day’s events as a “temporary breakdown in communication.”
Image Credit: Getty
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