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“Now or Never”: Shocking New Findings Reveal What is at Stake if Environmental Change Continues

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According to a new study published in Nature Communications, Madagascar’s unique modern mammal species are at a greater risk of extinction and, if lost, could take up to 23 million years to re-emerge.

The study, which examined the emergence of these species and estimated the time it would take for a similarly complex set of new mammal species to evolve in their place, delivered a stark warning of the urgent need for action to preserve these endangered animals.

Madagascar is a real-world laboratory for studying the effects of isolation on island life and how it might accelerate evolution. Ninety percent of the flora and fauna there are unique to our planet.

However, due to habitat loss, overhunting, and climate change, many flora and animals are in serious jeopardy. More than 120 of the island’s 219 recognized animal species, including 109 species of lemurs, are under risk of extinction.

New research in Nature Communications has shed light on the evolution of Madagascar’s unique modern mammal species and the potential consequences of their extinction. The study revealed that it took a significant amount of time for these species to emerge and that, if endangered species were to disappear, it would take 23 million years for a similarly complex set of new mammal species to evolve in their place. This estimate is far longer than any other island recorded by scientists. The research underlines the importance of conservation efforts to protect the biodiversity of these unique and fragile species on the island.

Putting it bluntly, it is terrible news.

According to Steve Goodman, MacArthur Field Biologist at Chicago’s Field Museum and Scientific Officer at Associati, “It is abundantly clear that there are whole lineages of unique mammals that only occur on Madagascar that have either gone extinct or are on the verge of extinction.

According to Steve Goodman, MacArthur Field Biologist at Chicago’s Field Museum and Scientific Officer at Associati, “It is abundantly clear that there are whole lineages of unique mammals that only occur on Madagascar that have either gone extinct or are on the verge of extinction.

Madagascar is the fifth-largest island in the world. It is about the size of France. However, Goodman says that because Madagascar has so many different ecosystems, it is more like a small continent than an island.

Since Madagascar broke off from the rest of Africa 150 million years ago and from India 80 million years ago, the plants and animals there have evolved in their own ways, separate from the rest of the world.

The smaller gene pool and the fact that Madagascar has a lot of different kinds of habitats, from rainforests in the mountains to deserts in the lowlands, helped mammals there become different species much more quickly than their cousins on the continent.

But this amazing diversity comes at a price: evolution and extinction both happen faster on islands.

Smaller populations that have evolved to live in smaller, unique patches of habitat are more likely to go extinct, and once they’re gone, they’re gone.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species, often known as the IUCN Red List, lists more than half of Madagascar’s animals as endangered.

The main causes of the extinction of these creatures during the last 200 years have been human activities, particularly habitat degradation and overhunting.

Goodman was part of an international team of scientists from Madagascar, Europe, and the United States who worked together to investigate the imminent extinction of Madagascar’s endangered creatures.

Every animal species known to have coexisted with humans on Madagascar over the last 2,500 years was compiled into a dataset. (People have lived on the island, maybe on and off, for the last 10,000 years, but they have lived there full-time for the last 2,500 years.)

The scientists listed the 219 mammal species that are now known to exist as well as an additional 30 species that have vanished over the previous 2,000 years, including a gorilla-sized lemur that vanished between 500 and 2,000 years ago.

The researchers constructed genetic family trees to determine how these species are connected to one another and how long it took them to develop from their numerous common ancestors using this dataset of all known Malagasy animals that interacted with humans.

The scientists were then able to predict how long it would take for evolution to “replace” all of the endangered species if they go extinct based on how long it took for this level of diversification to arise.

The study found that rebuilding the diversity of land-dwelling mammals that have been lost due to human activity over the past 2,500 years would take approximately 3 million years. 

However, the findings also indicate a more dire reality: if all currently endangered mammals were to disappear, it would take an unprecedented 23 million years to recover the diversity of those species. 

That doesn’t imply that in another 23 million years or more, evolution will bring back all the extinct lemurs, tenrecs, fossas, and other distinctive Malagasy animals.

Goodman claims that recovering them would be impossible. The model suggests that it would take 23 million years for new species, regardless of how they could appear, to evolve to a comparable degree of complexity.

Surprised lead author Luis Valente adds: 

“It is much longer than what previous studies have found on other islands, such as New Zealand or the Caribbean. It was already known that Madagascar was a hotspot of biodiversity, but this new research puts into context just how valuable this diversity is. These findings underline the potential gains of the conservation of nature on Madagascar from a novel evolutionary perspective.”

Goodman asserts that Madagascar has reached a turning point in terms of preserving its biodiversity.

“There is still a chance to fix things, but basically, we have about five years to really advance the conservation of Madagascar’s forests and the organisms that those forests hold,” he adds.

According to Goodman: “Madagascar’s biological crisis has nothing to do with biology. It has to do with socio-economics.” 

But while the situation is dire, according to him, “we can’t throw in the towel. We’re obliged to advance this cause as much as we can and try to make the world understand that it’s now or never.”

Source: 10.1038/s41467-022-35215-3

Image Credit: Toby Smith/Getty Images Reportage for Crop Trust

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