The recent increase in Covid-19 infections in the United Kingdom has health professionals in the United States on high alert, since Delta and Omicron variant patterns in Europe have tended to foreshadow those in the US.

According to epidemiologists and medics, the rapid spread of the highly transmissible BA.2 Omicron form, as well as a relaxation of restrictions aimed at delaying transmission, such as mask requirements, are generating issues in Europe. The United States has likewise largely abandoned mitigating measures, and federal authorities estimate that BA.2 accounts for around 35 percent of all cases in the United States. These variables raise the possibility of another Covid-19 rise in the United States.

“Our experience with Delta and Omicron is that what happens with Europe doesn’t stay in Europe. It hits us,” says Jay Varma, a physician and epidemiologist who directs Weill Cornell Medicine’s Center for Pandemic Prevention and Response.

According to Johns Hopkins University data, the seven-day average for cases in the United States is currently about 31,000, the lowest level since last July.

Both the United States and the United Kingdom have case counts  might not accurately reflect the total number of infections, and testing levels have historically been greater in the United Kingdom, according to health experts. Because of the growth of at-home testing, which is generally not reflected in state counts, the United States has experienced considerable challenges in monitoring cases, and several states have reduced the frequency of their reporting.

It remains to be seen whether the number of cases in the United States will begin to rise again, mirroring the trend in the United Kingdom, according to public-health specialists. Some factors, such as the acceleration of BA.2 in early spring, when people in cold-weather areas such as the Northeast begin to spend more time outside, could help the United States avoid broad increases. Immunity from a severe Omicron attack this winter may also provide some protection for the United States, according to health experts.

According to CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, reported Covid-19 cases have fallen drastically on a national level, although infections have moved marginally higher in New York state—including New York City—in the past week. According to her, several communities in New England have seen an increase in Covid-19 hospitalizations, particularly in areas where the CDC estimates that BA.2 now accounts for more than half of all cases.

“This small increase in cases in the Northeast is something that we are closely watching as we look for any indication of an increase in severe disease,” she said during a White House briefing.

The unvaccinated population in the United States is a possible risk factor. People who are eligible for booster injections, which have been confirmed to help protect against severe illness and death, are included. During the Delta and Omicron surges, the United States had greater rates of Covid-19 mortality per 100,000 individuals than the United Kingdom.

Hospitalizations in the two countries have not taken the same paths.

While hospitalizations have lately climbed in the United Kingdom, the number of patients requiring ventilators has not, according to U.K. health data.

The number of newly admitted Covid-19 patients in US hospitals is at its lowest known level following any previous rise. According to a Wall Street Journal study of federal data, the seven-day average for newly admitted confirmed cases fell to 1,836 on Wednesday, down from a high of 22,000 in January. The number of Covid-19 hospitalized patients is likewise approaching a post-surge low.

From February 27 to March 6, the prevalence of BA.2 among sequenced samples in the United Kingdom reached 69 percent. While BA.2 has not been discovered in the majority of cases in the United States, the CDC estimated on Tuesday that the variant has accounted for more than half of cases in regions of the Northeast, including New York and New Jersey. These are only a few of the states that have recently relaxed masking laws as the winter Covid-19 surge has subsided.

The BA.2 variant has been discovered in at least 40 countries, including the United Kingdom, Denmark, India, Sweden, Singapore, and the Philippines.

According to research, BA.2 is identical to an earlier Omicron version in terms of the risk of hospitalization and developing serious disease. However, evidence indicates that BA.2 spreads more easily.

The fact that BA.2 hasn’t triggered a fresh Covid-19 rise in the United States thus far, even as the proportion of BA.2 cases climbs, may be a good omen, according to some public-health specialists. Some regional BA.2 hits may occur, but the United Kingdom may be a poor predictor of the United States as a whole, according to William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

“It’s going to come here, it’s going to do stuff,” he said. But, he added, “It’s not going to be as uniform as it has been in Europe.”

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