The results of a new study show that for every person who has been infected with coronavirus, there is another person who knows nothing about his infection.
We have known since the beginning of the pandemic that people can also become infected with Coronavirus without showing the signs and symptoms that may be helping spread the virus. How many there are, how high the number of unreported cases is – experts have so far disagreed on this.
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Now a study by the Medical School University Hospital Magdeburg in Germany provides new clues: According to this, the number of those actually infected could be twice as high as that of the officially reported.
Study Shows Half of the participants did not know about the infection
The investigation carried out by the Medical School University Hospital Magdeburg in Germany is the first result of an antibody study. The researchers examined the blood samples from a total of 2138 participants. 1895 of these had not yet been vaccinated at the time of research from January 20, 2021 to April 30, 2021. 57 were previously known to have been infected. So they should have antibodies.
The results of the study were surprising, however: Instead, it was not only the 57 previously infected who had antibodies – but a total of 110 people. In unvaccinated people, antibodies in the blood are a sign of a Covid-19 infection.
“Some of the other half were very surprised, some of them suspected it. These cases have not been included in the official statistics,” explains the Director of the Institute for Medical Microbiology and Hospital Hygiene.
The conclusion of the scientists: The total number of reported infections represents only about half of the infection rate.
Further studies provide evidence of a high number of unreported cases
The study from Magdeburg is not the first to suggest such a high number of unreported cases. In April, scientists had already presented interim results of a study that, among other things, dealt with the number of unreported cases of infected people during the first wave of coronavirus in the German county of Tirschenreuth.
The scientists came to the result that the number of unreported cases in the district, which was formerly a corona hotspot, was around 80 percent. The number of unreported cases was particularly high with 92 percent undetected infections in the 14 to 20 year old age group. For people aged 85 and over, however, it was only 41 percent.
Relevance of the study to herd immunity
So if we assume that the number of people actually infected could be up to twice as high as those reported, this raises questions about the desired herd immunity. The target value could then be reached or reduced more quickly – right? No, say infection epidemiologists.
They thinks this is risky.
“We should strive for the highest possible vaccination coverage and include unrecognized infected people completely in the vaccination program,” they said.
“This means that the external conditions for the vaccination campaign are unchanged.”
One can assume that many people in anywhere in the world have already gone through the infection without noticing it and without being recorded by the reporting system.
“Since these have very different immune responses, they should be vaccinated completely, i.e. twice.”
Target level for herd immunity is increased by mutations
Experts understand herd immunity to be the percentage of a population that has to be immune to a pathogen in order to slow down the infection process. Because the fewer people who are not immune, i.e. are still able to become infected or pass the virus on, the slower it spreads.
This immunity can be obtained through infection or vaccination. At the beginning of the pandemic, scientists assumed that this point in time would be reached with a herd immunity of 60 to 70 percent. However, they have continued to raise the target in the past few months. The reason: the more contagious mutations.
Because the basic reproduction rate R is decisive for herd immunity. This indicates how many people an infected person infects on average. If the rate is above 1, the number of new infections increases. If it is lower, the infection rate decreases.
For the previously known form of Sars-CoV-2, scientists assume an R value between 3 and 4.
Means: If no containment measures are taken, an infected person infects three people. The mutants then lead to an increase in the base reproduction number.
And thus also to an increase in the target value.
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“In view of the circulating fitter virus variants, we should aim for a vaccination quota of 80 percent,” explains infection epidemiologists.
Photo: blood samples from the university blood bank. Photographer: Christian Morawe / UMMD