Ukraine crisis live: Putin does not want to celebrate victory on May 9 but wants to unleash a ‘war’, according to experts.

Many experts predict that Vladimir Putin wants to celebrate a major victory in Ukraine on May 9, a Russian holiday. But there are increasing signs that this is not supposed to be the day of victory – but the day of the great mobilization.

May 9 is a special day for Russia. It is a victory day for the country. The day the German army surrendered in 1945. Every year Moscow celebrates this date with a parade. In the wake of the Ukraine war, many experts assume that Vladimir Putin wants to celebrate a great victory on that day. A great victory that he desperately needs to strengthen his power.

But not all war analysts still share this view. 

Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) assume a different scenario in their latest study on Russian “Operation Z” in Ukraine. They believe that Putin does not want to celebrate victory on May 9, but wants to unleash an inferno.

A quick victory is unlikely, a large mobilization likely

Watling and Reynolds write: “May 9 has turned from a deadline for victory into the beginning of a huge mobilization.” The Russian leadership has recognized that it needs time to realize its goals in eastern and southern Ukraine. It is said that a major offensive in the summer is needed for this.

A serious victory by May 9 has long been unlikely. Therefore, “Victory Day” could be used to mobilize large numbers of troops. The war researchers speak of a “turning point”. “May 9 could be the day when the Russian leadership will no longer speak of a ‘military special operation’ but of ‘war’.

According to Watling and Reynolds, rhetoric is already changing in Russia. It is no longer about a conflict with Ukraine. The statements by the Russian leadership have long been about a conflict with NATO. Foreign Minister Lavrov recently emphasized that NATO was waging “a proxy war in Ukraine.” In addition, it can be observed that Russia is preparing for a long war – also economically.

Cepa experts: Russian military calls for total war

The experts at the Center for European Political Analysis (CEPA) also come to this conclusion. In one report they write: Russia’s military believes that it is a mistake to limit the goals of the war. They argue that Russia is not fighting Ukraine, but NATO. The Russian military is therefore demanding total war, including large-scale mobilization.

Mike Mazarr, defense expert at the US think tank Rand Corporation, writes about the new theory: “It could be RU posturing to scare off Ukraine’s friends. It could reflect the views of some Russian officials, but not the key ones. It could be accurate now–and Putin could change course. But the risk of such a scenario cannot be ignored.”

11/ What do we make of all this? It could be RU posturing to scare off Ukraine's friends. It could reflect the views of some Russian officials, but not the key ones. It could be accurate now–and Putin could change course. But the risk of such a scenario cannot be ignored

— Mike Mazarr (@MMazarr) April 27, 2022

Should Putin really start the national mobilization on May 9 and announce to his people that they are at war with NATO, according to Mazarr this would mean “a great dilemma for the USA and NATO”. 

So far, the US has been trying to “massively weaken” Russia. But if Putin allows the situation to escalate further, the question arises as to whether direct war intervention can still be avoided.

Image Credit: Getty

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