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The US needs employees, but after the pandemic they no longer accept anything

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Imagine an economy in which, instead of being unemployed, there is the opposite problem: that there are not enough workers to fill the offers

Imagine an economy in which, instead of being unemployed, there is the opposite problem: there are not enough workers to fill the offers, so that companies are forced to reduce the demands on candidates, raise salaries and offer all kinds of incentives, from bonuses to the possibility of continuing to work from home.

This economy, where the worker has the upper hand, exists. It’s the U.S. economy, and the reasons why there is a lack of labor are varied and are, of course, politically charged.

The asymmetry between supply and demand for employment can be explained, in part, by the speed with which the US economy is recovering. As the vaccination campaign breaks down health restrictions across the country, consumers are making good use of the record $15 trillion they have saved over the past year; and businesses, which are being created at an unprecedented pace, are trying to meet this explosion of spending. For that, they need labor: people who produce, manage, and sell raw materials and consumer goods. The acceleration is so remarkable according to ‘The Wall Street Journal’, the economy will recover its pre-pandemic size in this same quarter.

This is one side of the coin: the fastest economic recovery in history. Nothing to do with the medium and long-term damage caused by previous recessions. The other side of the coin, however, is that millions of Americans still receive the benefits of the third stimulus plan against the economic effects of the COVID, approved last March. A package of aid that, among other things, reinforces unemployment benefits with $ 300 a week. In other words, Joe Biden’s plan predicted that the economy would take longer to take off and ordered subsidies through September. But the economy is already on track.

Here comes the political reading. In February, before the Democratic plan of 1.9 trillion dollars was approved, the Republican Party considered it excessive and asked to reduce it to a third, claiming that the market’s own dynamics would already heal the wounds, without the need to further fatten the deficit. Democrats stood firm with the original plan. Two months later, however, Joe Biden himself, still defending the subsidies, acknowledged that they could also be discouraging millions of Americans from seeking employment.

“The law is clear: if you are receiving unemployment benefits and you are offered a suitable job, you cannot turn down that job and simply continue to receive unemployment benefits,” the US president said during a speech on the economy. The White House has since promised to find a way to withdraw those subsidies from those who turned down a suitable job.

These suspicions do not seem misguided. According to a Bank of America study, unemployment benefits keep many unemployed from looking for work, but the phenomenon occurs especially among those who earn less than $ 32,000 a year: roughly half the national median wage. In this income bracket, unemployment represents almost the same money, but without having to get up early.

Meanwhile, two dozen Republican governors have rejected these federal grants, on the same pretext that they incentivize reluctance to seek employment. Since the subsidies do not depend on them, but on the Government in Washington, their decision is in a grey area. The White House seems to have accepted it, but the left of the Democratic Party, on the other hand, is resisting.

“It is important that the Department of Labor do everything in its power to ensure that unemployed Americans continue to receive this assistance, as required by law,” stated, in a letter to the Secretary of Labor, Marty Walsh, the Progressive Senator Bernie Sanders. “To ensure this obligation is met, I urge you to commit to holding states accountable for their role in administering the grants.”

The lack of candidates to fill these job vacancies would mainly damage small and medium-sized enterprises, which do not have the muscle to offer better conditions. The governors of these Republican states, about half the country, plan to cut off aid to nearly two million Americans from the middle of this month.

More and more people realize how the situation is, they demand better conditions from companies and they give their arm to twist. A study by Burning Glass Technologies, cited by ‘The New York Times’, says that the number of offers for which “no experience is needed” has increased by two-thirds since 2019. Jobs offering bonuses, on the other hand, have doubled.

In recent months, a string of large corporations has been announcing increases in the minimum wage. Bank of America will increase it from $ 20 to $ 25 an hour. Other large chains such as Amazon, Costco, McDonald’s or Under Armor will make similar increases, at least up to $ 15 an hour. In total, the hourly wage has grown by 9% since a year ago.

Also schools

In addition to this difference in timing between economic recovery and subsidies, another factor that keeps some Americans out of the job market is that many colleges, in states like New York, will not reopen until September. This circumstance has made many parents decide to stay home to take care of their children and supervise online teaching.

Another reason is the fear of catching COVID, which, despite the vaccination campaign, may still be present; early retirements, inspired perhaps by the gloomy outlook for the economy in 2020, and the fact that many Americans may take advantage of this pandemic hiatus to take some time, reinvent themselves, and change careers. Be that as it may, the workforce today has 3.5 million fewer employees than in February 2020.

According to Anneken Tappe, a CNN financial journalist, the sector that has the most difficulty hiring is manufacturing. It may be because of the limited prospects that workers perceive, in an era of economies of scale, or because of the small difference that can be between pay and unemployment benefits.

One sector that has been having problems finding labour for years is truckers; a need multiplied in recent months. The confinement has triggered online commerce, which has triggered the rental and construction of warehouses by companies such as Amazon, which requires expanding the fleet of trucks to move all those millions of packages daily.

The nation’s largest trucking carrier, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, has increased wages by 40% since 2020. Before, a rookie driver earned $ 47,000 annually. Now he starts earning more than 60,000. Companies like this one have redoubled hiring efforts, advertising, holding job fairs, and promising other incentives.

Until the balance is balanced again, predictably in the coming months, the average US worker has the opportunity to demand more and better from employers. A circumstance that had not been seen for a generation.

Image Credit: Getty

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