Experts of the Kazakhstan political forum Astana Club presented the second edition of the “Top 10 Risks for Eurasia in 2020” rating, among the main dangers were trade wars and a new surge of terrorism in the world, in particular, the so-called “white” terrorism, reports the correspondent of Revyuh.
The rating was presented at the fifth meeting of the Astana Club in the capital of Kazakhstan on Monday. “I think our rating will be the first in this series, because, as a rule, risk ratings for the year are published somewhere at the end of the year. I think that Astana Club will set the right trend, evaluating the main tracks of negative developments, well and positive things, I think, will be added by our colleagues (other ratings and forecasts) , “said Yerzhan Saltybayev, director of the Institute of World Economy and Politics, at a briefing on the presentation of the rating.
So, the list of key risks for Eurasia in 2020 included aftershocks of the US presidential election in 2020. “Uncertainties in the political development of the United States can pose serious risks for the whole of Eurasia,” the rating commentary says.
Among the risks is the global economic recession. The trigger for another economic crisis with global implications could be problems in emerging economies. Amid the outflow of capital, the currencies of emerging markets run the risk of falling sharply, which will aggravate the debt problem of companies and spiral the global crisis, the rating says.
Further, experts note the escalation of the confrontation between the United States and China. The risk of increased confrontation between Beijing and Washington is marked on the first line of last year’s similar rating. The problem remains relevant in 2020. The conflict between the United States and China may take shape in a full-fledged strategic confrontation, experts warn.
A new stage in the global arms race is also included in the risk rating. In 2019, the world saw the collapse of the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles. Therefore, in 2020, the world will be faced with the probability of total zeroing of the rules of the game in the field of strategic weapons.
Among the risks are also noted a military campaign against Iran, a nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula, a new surge of terrorism. According to the rating, despite the defeat of the Islamic State, terrorist groups are experiencing a new phase in their development, expanding the geography of their actions.
“The chimeric product of this dangerous evolution is the lone wolves (extremists who commit terrorist attacks alone). At the same time, the world is facing extreme manifestations of the so-called white terrorism and terrorism of other faiths, whose victims are Muslims and migrants,” says in the document.
Large-scale problems due to climate change are also included in the ranking of experts. According to them, in 2020, disagreements of major powers run the risk of completely paralyzing the process of combating climate change, which will make it easier for other states to pursue a selfish policy, justifying themselves by national interests.
40 experts and politicians worked on the study. In addition, more than a thousand professional respondents from 70 countries were interviewed using the questionnaire survey method.
The document was prepared by the Institute of World Economy and Politics under the Foundation of the First President of Kazakhstan. The rating was co-authored by the ex-president of Slovenia (2007-2012) Danilo Turk, vice president of the Carnegie Endowment Evan Feigenbaum (USA), and chairman of the PIR Center.