Oaxaca and Guerrero in Mexico are bracing for severe rainfall as a category two hurricane, dubbed Agatha, makes its way toward the coast this Sunday afternoon.

Hurricane Agatha, which is fast developing, is expected to cause landfall near Mazunte on Monday, prompting hurricane warnings in Mexico’s Oaxaca state.

The National Hurricane Center has issued a warning that the storm could deliver “dangerous” coastal flooding and “life-threatening hurricane-force winds” close to where it makes landfall. It also warns that as the storm passes over southern Mexico, “life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides” are expected, with mountainous territory receiving up to 20 inches of rain.

This year’s first named storm, Agatha, is a signal of an increase in tropical storm activity in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins.

It’s also possible that the storm’s intensification will cause problems in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center in Miami estimates that there is a 30% possibility of redevelopment.

At 8 a.m. Eastern time on Sunday, Agatha became a hurricane. Between Salina Cruz and Lagunas de Chacahua, Mexico, a hurricane warning is in place, with hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings sweeping sections of the coastline on both sides.

The Hurricane Center announced at 11 a.m. that the storm was “rapidly strengthening,” with peak winds of 85 mph.

On Sunday morning, Agatha was about 200 miles off the coast of Puerto Angel, Mexico, where conditions were favorable for the storm to strengthen further. According to the Hurricane Center, the storm is churning over warm water, which is helping to fuel it, and there are no hostile upper-level winds.

The storm is expected to reach landfall Monday night with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, or as a high-end Category 2 hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center. When the storm gets onshore, the strongest winds will hit a small area of the coast east of the center, causing serious damage.

Late Sunday or early Monday, tropical storm-force winds, potential of causing additional moderate damage, could begin along the coast in the hurricane warning zone. Winds of tropical storm force extend 80 miles from the storm’s core.

Agatha will also cause a significant ocean surge, which is a storm-driven increase in water above typically dry ground, which could flood coastal areas. The storm’s strongest surge is forecast near and just east of its landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Heavy rainfall will be more concerning for regions inland, particularly in higher terrain. Oaxaca is expected to get 10 to 16 inches of rain, with localized amounts up to 20 inches in the highlands. Mudslides and rapid flooding could result, potentially isolating more isolated areas. In the state of Chiapas, totals of 5 to 10 inches are likely, with a few 15-inch totals.

Agatha is the earliest hurricane in the eastern Pacific since 2015, according to Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University. On May 29 of that year, Andres also became a hurricane.

Agatha is on track to become only the third eastern Pacific hurricane on record to make landfall in May. If it approaches the coast with maximum sustained winds of at least 100 mph (the current forecast is for 110 mph), it will be the strongest storm from the eastern Pacific to hit land this early in the season, according to Jeff Masters, a Yale Climate Connections meteorologist and hurricane specialist.

It would be a first for May if Agatha made landfall in Mexico as a Category 3 major hurricane.

Early this week, Agatha is anticipated to deteriorate swiftly as it moves inland away from its oceanic heat source. It will release the majority of its moisture since it will no longer be heated from below. It will be a shell of its former self by Tuesday.

The storm’s leftover spin could then wander across Mexico, eventually emerging in the Gulf of Mexico, somewhere in the Bay of Campeche, by the middle or end of this week. As broad low pressure gathers again, the National Hurricane Center predicts a 30% risk of redevelopment.

Water temperatures are moderate enough to enable low-pressure organization; whether it can consolidate and organize is more a question of upper-atmospheric winds, which may be adverse to development at first. They might loosen up a little on Thursday and Friday, giving them a little window of opportunity.

2 am EDT May 29: A broad low pressure area could form around the middle of the week over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system currently has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. More: https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB. pic.twitter.com/EWUcxGcS2m

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) May 29, 2022

Residents of the Gulf Coast region should keep an eye on this system’s progress.

The storm will keep its name if the central vortex of Agatha stays intact when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, according to tradition. Hurricane Otto, which travelled from the Caribbean to Costa Rica and Nicaragua before emerging as a tropical storm over the Pacific in November 2016, was an example of this. Even though it made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane, it retained its name after entering a new ocean basin.

If the vortex dissipates and a new low-pressure system forms from Agatha’s leftovers, it will be named Alex and will be the Atlantic hurricane season’s first named storm.

In the Atlantic, hurricane season officially begins on June 1, and long-range forecasts are warning of a seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season.

Image Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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