Since the sinking of the Moskva, Russia’s warships have been forced into taking a more cautious approach in the Black Sea, and it is suspected that Russian submarines are deploying cruise missiles to hit far-off Ukrainian targets.

Even with overhead satellites, the missile launches from as deep as 50 meters beneath the surface are difficult to notice, but navy analysts say the Kilo-class submarines have been regularly sighted reloading long-range missiles and payloads at Russian ports before vanishing underwater again.

According to HI Sutton, a submarine analyst, and Benjamin Pittet, an investigator at the Centre for Information Resilience, there is “strong circumstantial evidence” that they have been striking Ukrainian land sites and playing a crucial role in the fight.

The goal, according to a top Russian officer, is to take the entire south of Ukraine, as well as the Donbas in the east. According to Russian news outlets, General Rustam Minnekayev, deputy commander of Russia’s Central Military District, “control over the south of Ukraine is another way out to Transnistria, where there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population.”

In the Black Sea, the Russian navy is believed to have four Kilo-class ships. They are normally powered and small, but they are equipped with powerful Kalibr cruise missiles, which are comparable to the American Tomahawk. The missiles, which may be launched from torpedo tubes and have a range of around 1,550 miles, are available in several configurations.

Throughout the fight, Russia’s defense ministry has boasted that its frigates have fired the missiles at Ukrainians, and today it released a video showing a warship firing four Kalibrs from the Black Sea. At a railway station in the Dnipro region, “an entire battalion” was destroyed, along with weapons and equipment, according to the report.

Submarine launch updates are rare, as keeping the positions of the vessels secret is crucial from a strategic standpoint. Using open-source software, Sutton said he had been “keeping an eye on their port activities.” “We cannot observe them under the waves but we do see them loading weapons in port.”   Just before the assault, submarines were seen loading Kalibr. Since then, they’ve been seen loading on multiple occasions.

Russian battleships have retreated from the coast, according to Ukrainian officials, after Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles sank the Russian fleet’s flagship, the Moskva, last week. Some relatives of Russian sailors, including conscripts, who are thought to have died in the raid claim they were told their loved ones would be safe on board before the invasion.

Sutton told Times that despite “early indications” that Russian vessels were “being less brazen” as a result of the hit, Russian ships were still firing Kalibrs within sight of Sevastopol, in occupied Crimea.

“The Kalibr missiles have such a long range that the launches barely expose their warships,” he explained, adding “It is about the lowest-risk task they can do.”

Image Credit: REUTERS/YORUK ISIK

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