According to SAGE, a further 115,800 COVID fatalities are expected by June 2022 in the most pessimistic scenario, whereas just 9,400 deaths are expected in the most hopeful ‘unlockdown’ scenario.
In terms of COVID hospitalizations, R numbers, and deaths, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) published figures on what the impending July 19 ‘unlockdown’ would entail.
The study noting the uncertainty of numerous factors, said:
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“Whilst the impact of Test Trace Isolate (TTI), mask wearing, hand hygiene, and COVID security on R is difficult to quantify, it will be vital to emphasise the importance of normalising and ensuring adherence to all measures even after “full lifting” is achieved.”
According to SAGE, there will be an additional 9,400 fatalities by June 1, 2022, under the most optimistic scenario. By the same year, the most pessimistic scenario predicts 115,800 COVID fatalities.
The much awaited study uses three methods of calculation to provide three possible outcomes: pessimistic, optimistic, and central.
The most pessimistic projection of how many more UK COVID deaths may occur can be worked out using the lowest vaccine efficacy achievable and an R rate of 2.5.
On the other hand, the most optimistic projection can be obtained using the highest possible vaccine efficacy and a low R rate of 1, even after ‘unlockdown’.
The Delta strain, which has been proven to have a generally weakening influence on vaccination efficacy, is currently widespread in the UK.
After all obligatory pandemic precautions are withdrawn on July 19, the R rate is expected to rise by SAGE, but vaccination effectiveness is considerably more uncertain. The UK employed a combination of vaccinations designed to combat the original Wuhan virus, but is now dealing with a different variant that has mutated to become more transmissible.
The covid vaccines, for example, have been tested in the real-term against the Delta strain, but not entirely in clinical trials — at least not yet. Only the Sinovac vaccine has been tested against six Variants of Concern, but it still has a long way to go before being approved for Emergency Use.
This implies that there are a variety of options for how well current vaccinations stand up, particularly against Variants of Concern that aren’t yet present in the UK. The Lambda variation, which first appeared in Peru in 2020, and any variant from a country with poor immunisation rates are examples.
SAGE further wrote:
Preventing the further importation and spread of variants of concerns (VOC) with moderate to high immune escape properties will be critical as these could lead to future waves orders of magnitude larger than the ones experienced so far.
Whether the mortality toll is 9,400 or 115,800, SAGE claims that people “75 years and above” with both dosages will be disproportionately affected. Despite having both vaccines, there was “high uptake of an imperfect vaccine,” according to the research.
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Those aged 50 to 74 years old are the secondary group at danger of mortality despite being double-jabbed.
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