A new study reveals who is more at risk of the most common form of arthritis, osteoarthritis – and one key factor drives the risk
Osteoarthritis Set to Affect 1 Billion by 2050, According to New Research
A recent research article in The Lancet Rheumatology has forecasted that by 2050, almost 1 billion individuals worldwide could be living with osteoarthritis, the most prevalent type of arthritis. At present, osteoarthritis affects about 15% of people aged 30 and above. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) conducted the study by examining osteoarthritis data spanning three decades (1990-2020) across 200+ countries as an element of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
The research identified a swift increase in osteoarthritis cases in the last 30 years, attributing the rise to an aging population, overall population expansion, and a surge in obesity levels. In a span of 30 years, the number of affected individuals grew from 256 million in 1990 to 595 million in 2020, marking a 132% upswing. By mid-century, this figure is predicted to be near 1 billion.
Dr. Jaimie Steinmetz, the main author of the paper and a leading scientist at IHME, commented, “With the key drivers of people living longer and a growing world population, we need to anticipate stress on health systems in most countries.
“There is no effective cure for osteoarthritis right now, so it’s critical that we focus on strategies of prevention, early intervention, and making expensive, effective treatments like joint replacements more affordable in low- and middle-income countries.”
Anticipated Osteoarthritis Impact in 2050
According to the study, by 2050, the expected increases in osteoarthritis cases based on affected body parts are:
- Knee: +74.9%
- Hand: +48.6%
- Hip: +78.6%
- Other joints (like elbow, shoulder): +95.1%
The research also highlighted that women are more susceptible to osteoarthritis than men. In 2020, the distribution was 61% women to 39% men.
Dr. Jacek Kopek from the University of British Columbia mentioned, “The reasons for gender differences in osteoarthritis prevalence are being investigated, but researchers believe that genetics, hormonal factors, and anatomical differences play a role.”
The Obesity Factor
A notable finding of the study is the link between obesity and osteoarthritis. By combating obesity on a global scale, it’s possible to reduce osteoarthritis cases by roughly 20%. The study also revealed a growing impact of obesity over time. In 1990, obesity contributed to 16% of osteoarthritis-related disabilities, which jumped to 20% by 2020.
Dr. Liane Ong, a primary researcher at IHME who contributed to the study, stated, “Healthcare systems and governments have an opportunity to engage and participate in identifying vulnerable populations, addressing drivers of obesity, and developing management strategies to prevent or slow down the progression of osteoarthritis.”
The research was sponsored by organizations including the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Institute for Bone and Joint Research, the Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health, and the Commonwealth of Australia. It involved collaboration between IHME and global researchers.
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