The pandemic may have put an end to the days of commuting five days a week for many, but that does not mean spending any less on coffee. Coffee has become a national obsession, and it seems that even a global pandemic cannot shake our addiction to this beloved beverage.
In the United States alone, a staggering 517 million cups of coffee are consumed per day. Speciality coffee drinks are especially popular, with 50% of people in the US, or 150 million people, enjoying them daily. It’s also worth noting that 65% of coffee drinkers prefer to start their day with a cup of coffee, usually with breakfast. And while black coffee is still a favorite for 35% of coffee drinkers, the popularity of flavored lattes and other speciality drinks continues to grow.
Unfortunately, there is some bad news for coffee enthusiasts. As the climate warms, the world’s coffee supplies are running out. This is due in large part to the fact that coffee is a crop that is highly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation.
Coffee is vital to the economics of coffee-producing areas. According to research published in PLOS Climate by Doug Richardson and colleagues from CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia, climate change may have serious consequences for the area used to grow coffee.
Coffee plants are climate-sensitive. But no one knows what will happen if climate hazards happen at the same time in more than one place where coffee is grown.
Researchers analyzed climatic risks and compound events in coffee-producing areas from 1980 to 2020 to better understand how large-scale climate modes like El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may contribute to simultaneous coffee crop failures in various nations.
They came up with a list of 12 climate-related problems that could hurt coffee crops in the top 12 coffee-producing countries, such as temperatures that are too high for coffee plants.
Between 1980 and 2020, the researchers identified a rise in the frequency of climatic risks and compound occurrences in all coffee-growing regions.
Also, the dangers have changed from being caused by it being too cold to being caused by it being too warm. But, further investigation is required to determine what adjustments can prevent widespread coffee crop failures throughout the world.
As per the findings of the researchers, it can be inferred that El Niño plays a crucial role in the variability of compound climate events at both global and regional levels.
The authors of the study suggest that risks to coffee production at the regional level are indicative of systemic risks, rather than being limited to local risks. In line with other crops, the occurrence of synchronized crop failures could pose a systemic threat to the global coffee trade.
Given the projections of climate change that indicate a continuous increase in temperatures in the tropics, it is highly likely that coffee production will be exposed to ongoing systemic shocks in response to spatially compounded climate hazards.
The authors further note that since 1980, global coffee production has been progressively susceptible to synchronized crop failures, which can be triggered by climate hazards impacting several critical coffee-producing regions concurrently.
This could have a devastating impact not only on the coffee industry but also on the livelihoods of the millions of people who rely on coffee production for their income.
While there is still time to take action and mitigate the effects of climate change on coffee production, it is clear that the days of unlimited coffee supplies may be numbered.
As we continue to enjoy our daily cups of coffee, it is important to remember the impact that our choices can have on the world around us.
Source: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000134
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