Is the Next Pandemic ‘The Big One’? US Scientists Raise the Alarm
American scientists have issued a cautionary message, suggesting that the next pandemic might be instigated by paramyxoviruses, a perplexing family of over 75 viruses for which the means of cross-species transmission remains an enigma.
Dubbed the ‘Big One,’ this impending pandemic could be silently lurking in the background, harboring the potential to unleash the most contagious and deadliest diseases humanity has ever encountered.
The paramyxovirus family, encompassing notorious members like mumps, measles, and respiratory tract infections, was added to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases’ watchlist of pandemic pathogens in October.
Among these viruses is the Nipah virus, capable of infecting cells with receptors that regulate the passage of substances in and out of cells lining the central nervous system and vital organs. This variant exhibits a fatality rate of up to 75 percent, in stark contrast to COVID-19’s mortality rate, which remains under one percent.
What sets paramyxoviruses apart is their stable genetic makeup. While influenza and COVID-19 mutate rapidly, paramyxoviruses seem to maintain genetic stability as they propagate, yet excel in transmitting efficiently among humans.
Contemplating the emergence of a paramyxovirus as contagious as measles and as deadly as Nipah, Michael Norris, Ph.D., an assistant professor at the University of Toronto, emphasized the gravity of the situation.
Dr. Michael Norris, an assistant professor at the University of Toronto, forewarns, “Just imagine if a paramyxovirus emerged that was as contagious as measles and as deadly as Nipah.”
This scenario is not a mere work of fiction; it mirrors the premise of the 2011 film “Contagion,” starring Matt Damon, Gwyneth Paltrow, and Kate Winslet.
The movie depicted a woman returning from a Hong Kong business trip, unknowingly introducing a lethal microbe – the Nipah virus – which triggered a global pandemic.
“Influenza has been sequenced to death,” remarked Benhur Lee, a virologist at Mount Sinai’s Icahn School of Medicine, highlighting the research focus on influenza compared to paramyxoviruses.
The difficulty lies in the fact that most individuals infected with one of the 75+ paramyxoviruses do not survive, making the development of treatments and vaccines nearly impossible.
The first identified member of this virus family, Rinderpest, which affects cloven-hoofed animals, was discovered in 1902. Remarkably, it became the second disease to be completely eradicated in 2011, following smallpox in 1980.
Despite over a century of awareness about paramyxoviruses, the mystery shrouds the process by which these viruses jump to new species and acquire mutations that enable them to infect humans. For instance, while mumps were originally believed to infect only humans and certain primates, cases have been found in bats.
The variability in the impact of paramyxoviruses, causing mild infections in some hosts and fatal ones in others, adds to the intrigue. Subfamilies like rubulaviruses, which include mumps, pose a significant concern as they can easily infect humans, apes, pigs, and dogs, particularly in close quarters.
Measles, which dates back to the 9th century but wasn’t linked to an infectious agent until 1757, presents another facet of the paramyxovirus family. Emmie de Wit, chief of the molecular-pathogenesis unit at Rocky Mountain Laboratories, holds hope that measles may eventually be eradicated, negating the need for vaccinations. However, history has shown that when one disease vanishes, another may emerge in its place.
In a 2022 report titled “Strengthening Australia’s Pandemic Preparedness,” paramyxoviruses are spotlighted as viruses that are increasingly crossing over from animals to humans at alarming rates.
The report also highlights the rise of novel viruses, with the potential for larger outbreaks, adding to the growing concerns about pandemics.
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