Low vaccination rates, inconsistent implementation of social distancing norms, and puzzling political messaging have crippled the US response to the pandemic.

Just over one in every 500 Americans has died from the virus – one of the highest death rates in the world in a country with significant vaccine access.

However, there are preliminary signs that the Delta outbreak is winding down, with the number of new Covid-19 cases recorded reducing by 22% in the last two weeks and hospitalizations falling by a fifth.

Additionally, the rate of death has slowed. In Florida, where Covid-19-related deaths peaked at 418 per day on September 13, they have now declined to around 200 per day.

Despite increased infection rates and deaths in several Midwestern and northeastern areas, some health experts believe the US is winning the war against the Delta strain. Strict vaccine regulations, the expansion of booster shots, and the development of an antiviral medication to treat Covid-19, they add, are critical instruments for taming the virus.

“I think this Delta wave is probably the last major surge of Sars-Cov-2 infection that we have in the US, barring something unexpected happening,” stated Scott Gottlieb, one of the Pfizer board director.

The vaccination of adolescents and regulatory approval of Merck’s antiviral pill might bring the pandemic to a conclusion in the United States and usher in an endemic phase of Covid-19 — in which the virus circulates but does not pose the tremendous risk that it does now, he told media this week.

According to the majority of epidemiologists, there is little chance of eradicating Covid-19, and it will have to be handled similarly to influenza, with a combination of vaccines, treatments, and the gradual development of natural immunity over time. However, there is considerable discussion over when this can be accomplished and whether the recent downturn is the start of a sustained downward trend or a temporary blip.

“We may be over the worst but there will be surges because there are still 65m Americans who are unvaccinated — so that’s a lot of human wood out there for this coronavirus forest fire,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

He cautioned that many specialists had projected incorrectly that the previous summer would provide a break from the pandemic just weeks before the Delta strain began wreaking havoc across the country. Osterholm told the FT that increasing vaccination rates in the United States is vital to contain the pandemic.

“What the Delta variant has shown is that if you are unvaccinated this virus will find you,” he added.

Health experts are confident that the Biden administration’s vaccine requirement and authorization of vaccines for children aged 5 to 12 will increase vaccination rates from 56% of the population to levels observed in other developed countries. The administration of booster doses to address diminishing immunity is another strategy for preventing the virus from spreading throughout the winter months, scientists explain.

“We have all the ingredients to do much better this winter and in coming months. But it’s ours to lose — I would never underestimate this virus,” said Ali Mokdad, professor of global health at the University of Washington.

He cautions that when case numbers decline, people may drop their guard again by not wearing masks. Politics harmed the US response to the pandemic in the past and may do so again, Mokdad noted.

Many Republican governors have reacted strongly to the Biden administration’s vaccine mandate, which would cover two-thirds of private sector workers. They are threatening to sue to halt a regulation that would require vaccinations or weekly testing for employees at organizations with more than 100 employees.

According to a recent survey commissioned by the think tank The Conference Board, two-thirds of company directors support vaccine mandates. However, more than half of respondents indicated that implementation would be challenging, citing fears that it would alienate some workers.

Lori Esposito Murray, president of the Conference Board’s Committee For Economic Development, stated that if the mandate rules are clear and well followed, it has the potential to reach a significant portion of the unvaccinated population.

“An end to the pandemic and a return to normalcy are within reach and we just need to come together as a nation to get ourselves there,” she said.

However, researchers warn that even if Covid-19 becomes endemic in the United States in the coming months, the pandemic would continue to rage in the underdeveloped world due to low vaccination rates. And this increases the likelihood of a new, more transmissible or lethal strain of the virus arising, perhaps plunging the US into crisis once more.

“Right now Delta is king of the hill. But the question is whether something could develop that would be more transmissible. God forbid that should ever happen,” said Osterholm.

Image Credit: Getty

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