All may not be as it seems when it comes to North Korean missile launches — and much else about the secretive country. South Korea stated it believes the regime’s assertion that it had successfully tested its largest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was false.

The “monster missile,” according to the South’s military, was a Hwasong-15, a smaller projectile that Pyongyang had previously launched in 2017, the last time it fired missiles capable of targeting any place on the US mainland.

Even if the Hwasong-17 was not used in Pyongyang’s latest missile test, which was accompanied by a polished PR video featuring the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, in a black leather jacket and aviator sunglasses, it is generally agreed that the weapon flew higher and farther than any other in the country’s history.

The timing is critical, since it coincides with US President Joe Biden’s focus on the Ukraine conflict — a reminder that North Korea’s sanctions-defying development of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons is progressing at an alarming rate.

“Pyongyang might have thought it was safe to test more provocative weapons without drawing penalties while Washington and the world are preoccupied with Ukraine,” said Duyeon Kim, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security in Washington.

“North Korea usually has multiple objectives for every action. It may be gearing up for a tougher US-South Korea alliance after Yoon Suk-yeol’s presidential election victory while pushing ahead with preexisting plans to make hi-tech nuclear weapons as ordered by Kim Jong-un. It might also be aiming to mask any internal weakness through shows of strength before the North Korean people even if it has to be deceptive about them.”

Despite rumors that a Hwasong-17 missile burst in mid-air over Pyongyang in mid-March, shocking residents of the city, every noteworthy missile launch is partly aimed at Kim’s home audience.

While the country struggles with food shortages and attempts to re-establish cross-border trade with China after two years of Covid-19 pandemic restrictions, Kim routinely uses weapons tests to demonize the United States and reinforce the belief among the country’s 25 million people that their greatest existential threat comes from the “imperialists” on the other side of the Pacific.

Above all, the first ICBM launch since November 2017 served as a reminder to the United States that, despite years of UN Security Council sanctions, North Korea is rapidly establishing itself as a legitimate nuclear-armed state that Washington must treat as an equal if Trump-era summitry is to resume.

Although Biden has showed little enthusiasm in meeting with Kim, North Korea can use its growing arsenal of weaponry, which includes alleged hypersonic missiles and smaller short-range solid-fuel missiles aimed at South Korea, to persuade the US to talk. Analysts also believe the North is contemplating another nuclear test, its seventh, to demonstrate that it has mastered the technology to build a nuclear warhead small enough to fit on those missiles.

“The offensive arithmetic will be in their favour soon; they may be able to keep up with advances in American defences,” according to Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The North’s diplomatic calculus is unchanged from when Kim agreed to “denuclearize” the Korean peninsula at his first summit with Trump in June 2018, despite the fact that few observers felt he had any intention of giving away his most effective deterrent and most strong bargaining tool.

Pyongyang appears to be attempting to increase its leverage in order to convert denuclearization discussions into nuclear-reduction talks in exchange for economic aid.

“The message of the North Korean readout of [the recent] ICBM launch is clear: North Korea will continue to develop its nuclear arsenal,” added Rachel Minyoung Lee at the Washington-based 38 North programme, which monitors North Korea.

Analysts believe the ICBM launch, which comes after a four-year gap, might be the start of a new round of provocations reminiscent of the “fire and fury” days of 2017.

According to Hyun-Wook Kim, professor and director-general at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul, “a nuclear test is possible,” amid signs that work is underway to dig a shortcut to a tunnel at Punggye-ri, a nuclear test site the North “detonated” in 2018, just weeks before Kim’s first meeting with Trump.

“I think North Korea will use this opportunity to continue its military provocations as a way of getting something from both the US and China,” he added.

Duyeon North Korea will execute a nuclear test “only a matter of time,” according to Kim, if it stands to win technologically or politically.

“North Korea has every reason to raise tensions on the peninsula to gain leverage ahead of any future negotiations with Washington and to be accepted by the world as a permanent nuclear power,” she added.

Image Credit: Getty

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