A newly-found mutation of the Covid delta strain is being studied in the United Kingdom amid concerns that it could increase the virus’s transmissibility and damage Covid-19 vaccinations efforts further.
There are still countless unknowns about this descendant or subtype of the delta variant — formerly known as AY.4.2 — which some are naming the new “delta plus” type.
Health officials in the United Kingdom have stated that it is too early to predict whether the mutation poses a greater threat to public health than the delta mutation, which is substantially more contagious than the original Covid-19 strain (and its successor, the alpha variant).
However, they have noted that they are actively monitoring the mutation, which currently accounts for 6% of Covid cases in the United Kingdom that have been genetically sequenced, at a time when infections are quickly increasing in the country.
The following summarizes what we know and don’t know about the variant:
What is the new mutation?
Viruses continually evolve, and the coronavirus that erupted in late 2019 in China has undergone various subtle changes that have increased the virus’s infectiousness and ability to replicate. This was originally observed with the alpha type (first sequenced in the United Kingdom), which spread over the world before being overtaken by the much more transmissible delta mutation, which was identified in India.
Delta, which the World Health Organization designated as a “variant of concern” in May, continues to dominate globally.
However, the United Kingdom’s Health Security Agency published a report last Friday in which it stated that “a delta sublineage newly identified as AY.4.2 is growing in England.” The government stated that it was monitoring the subtype, which contains mutations in the spike protein (A222V and Y145H) used by the coronavirus to enter human cells.
“This sublineage is currently increasing in frequency,” the U.K.’s Health Security Agency stated last week, noting that “in the week beginning 27 September 2021 (the last week with complete sequencing data), this sublineage accounted for approximately 6% of all sequences generated, on an increasing trajectory. This estimate may be imprecise … Further assessment is underway.”
Great Britain is currently experiencing a protracted and concerning increase in Covid cases, with between 40,000 and 50,000 new infections each day reported in the last week, prompting specialists to wonder why the England is so vulnerable to Covid at the moment.
Although the delta subtype is estimated to be 10-15% more transmissible than the regular delta variant, it is too early to state definitively whether it has been associated with an increase in cases in the United Kingdom.
It’s worth noting that, while AY.4.2 is being monitored, it has not been designated by the WHO as a “variant under investigation” or a “variant of concern” — that is, it has not been reported as having genetic changes that could affect virus attributes such as infectiousness, the severity of disease, immune escape, diagnostic or therapeutic escape.
Additionally, it has not been established that it results in widespread community transmission or the formation of several Covid-19 clusters.
Still, that status could change following further monitoring and if it continues to be sequenced in an increasing number of cases.
The discovery of a potentially more transmissible mutation is significant since it could result in an increase in Covid cases among the unvaccinated and it may decrease vaccine efficacy even further, although there is no indication that is the case yet with the AY.4.2 subtype.
For the time being, health officials are maintaining cool about the delta subtype, emphasizing that it is critical to monitor the mutation but not to panic.
Commenting on “delta plus” on Wednesday, U.S. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky noted that “in particular the AY.4.2 variant has drawn some attention in recent days.” She added that: “we have, on occasion, identified this sub lineage here in the United States, but not with recent increase frequency or clustering, to date.”
Along with the United States, Israel confirmed a case of the AY.4.2 strain in an 11-year-old kid arriving at Ben Gurion airport. Russia also confirmed on Thursday that it had identified several isolated cases of the AY.4.2 strain. It is uncertain how widespread if at all, the subtype is in mainland Europe.
The official spokesman for the United Kingdom’s prime minister urged calm on Tuesday, telling Sky News that “[AY.4.2] is something we’re keeping a close eye on,” but added that there was presently no indication that this variant is more easily spread.
“There’s no evidence for that, but as you would expect, we’re monitoring it closely and won’t hesitate to take action if necessary,” he added.
Andrew Pollard, leader of the Oxford Vaccine Group, which collaborated with AstraZeneca and Oxford University to create the AstraZeneca-Oxford University vaccine, stated on Wednesday that the delta subvariant will have no effect on the Covid picture.
“Discovery of new variants is of course important to monitor, but it doesn’t indicate that that new variant is going to be the next one to replace delta,” Pollard told BBC radio, Reuters reported.
“Indeed even if it does, delta is incredibly good at transmitting in a vaccinated population and a new one may be a bit better but it’s unlikely to change the picture dramatically from where we are today.”
Meanwhile, Danny Altmann, an immunology expert at Imperial College London, told CNBC Monday that the subtype “needs to be monitored and, so far as possible, carefully controlled.”
“Because delta has now been the dominant mutant in several regions for some six months and not been displaced by any other variants, the hope has been that delta perhaps represented [the] peak mutation performance achievable by the virus. AY.4 may be starting to raise doubts about this assertion,” he warned.
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