Travel bans and other emergency measures taken by governments in response to omicron, the new Covid-19 strain, are allowing scientists to address critical questions that could avert another wave of deaths.

European, American, and African laboratories are ready to conduct studies to determine how the new variant would behave in individuals who have been vaccinated or previously infected. Real-world research will also be critical, as health authorities closely monitor the South African outbreak to see how much more transmissible the new strain will be as it spreads and whether it is more harmful or lethal.

Scientists and policymakers said Friday that answering the questions might take weeks. The quest for explanation begins with the variant’s spectacular pattern of 50 mutations, more than 30 of which are on the virus’s spike protein, which serves as the virus’s main weapon for invading victims’ cells. It will continue with laboratory studies and then with observations of disease and transmission patterns in the actual world.

What is evident so far is that a cluster of mutations has come together that may accelerate the spread of omicron, according to Wendy Barclay, head of Imperial College London’s department of infectious disease. 

“Taken together on paper, it’s very biologically plausible that this virus has increased transmissibility,” Barclay mentioned in Friday’s briefing.

Researchers must utilize the knowledge they’ve gathered over the course of more than a year of intensive virus research, she explained.

“That’s where you start, and then you try and back up that sort of approach by looking at the epidemiology and the laboratory-based studies.”

Omicron, formerly known as B.1.1.529, is the World Health Organization’s fifth variation of concern. 

However, it may have an advantage in terms of growth over the others because it has been discovered at a faster rate than in past surges, the WHO warned on Friday. Additionally, the WHO stated that it may pose a larger risk of reinfection than other types of concern.

There are indications that omicron may be more transmissible in South Africa, according to Sharon Peacock, a professor of public health and microbiology at the University of Cambridge who also serves as the director of the Covid-19 Genomics United Kingdom group.

“When the Ministry of Health saw the numbers were doubling every day, the question that they asked was, ‘Well, where are these cases coming from?’” 

These questions, along with South Africa’s rapid surveillance, may have enabled the rest of the world to buy more time than was possible when the delta variant emerged in India, according to Jeffrey Barrett, director of the Covid-19 Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute in the United Kingdom.

“They found this, understood that it was a problem and told the world extremely fast,” Barrett said. “It took many, many weeks into India’s extremely terrible wave before it became clear what was going on, and by that point delta had already seeded itself in many parts of the world.” 

The effect of the new mutation on vaccines may become apparent pretty quickly. BioNTech SE, which collaborates with Pfizer Inc. on the world’s best-selling Covid vaccine, said it is initiating laboratory investigations on the strain and expects to have preliminary results on its interaction with the vaccine within two weeks. 

BioNTech and Pfizer have previously stated that if necessary, they will be able to bring out a new version of their vaccine within 100 days. Moderna Inc. has also stated that it is capable of rapidly developing a fresh version of its shot.

Mutations may also help omicron evade antibody treatments such as Roche Holding AG’s and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.’s Ronapreve, which have become a staple of therapy for patients who are unable to mount an effective immune response on their own, according to ICL’s Barclay and other scientists.

According to Roche spokesman Karsten Kleine, experts are researching the novel variant and it is too early to predict how it will interact with the antibody cocktail.

GlaxoSmithKline Plc, which distributes a Covid antibody in collaboration with Vir Biotechnology Inc., believes the antibody will likely function against the variant because it targets a portion of the spike protein that is shared by a large number of distantly related coronaviruses. The company stated in a statement that it is working immediately to validate this in the laboratory.

Even if the new type is resistant to vaccinations and monoclonal antibodies, medics will still have options. Antiviral drugs, such as the experimental pill being developed by Pfizer Inc., are likely to continue to function, Barclay said.

This is due to the way the pills interact with the body. Rather than attacking the virus’s spike protein directly, as vaccines and other therapies do, they fight the virus in a different way in order to prevent it from replicating. This decreases the likelihood of the new variant’s spike-protein mutations resisting the tablets.

“There are no mutations that would signal a change in susceptibility,” Barclay said. 

Antivirals are not yet approved for use. Pfizer submitted an emergency use authorization for the drug in the United States on Nov. 16; a similar procedure began three days later in the European Union.

A second drug, developed by Merck & Co., hit a snag when trial data revealed that it was less effective than previously believed. The US Food and Drug Administration voiced concerns about the possibility of birth defects, bone and cartilage toxicity, and genetic alterations. A group of FDA experts will meet Tuesday to conduct an assessment of the pill.

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