Experts Are Really Worried About The COVID-19 crisis – Forcast the next five years

COVID-19 is expected to exacerbate inequities for at least five years if global cooperation is not maintained, the International Science Council says.

The UN should establish a Science Advisory Board to advise future pandemic responses, according to new research that maps out scenarios for the year 2027.

According to a new estimate by the International Science Council (ISC), COVID-19 would continue to aggravate disparities and vulnerability to future crises until at least 2027 unless global cooperation is renewed.

Unprecedented and Unfinished – COVID-19 and Implications for National and Global Policy urges the UN to create a new Science Advisory Board to assist mitigate the pandemic’s impact and better coordinate across sectors and the UN system for future global catastrophes.

The paper explores three possible scenarios from now until 2027, which are essentially driven by the virus’s evolution and the global uptake and coverage of effective vaccines. COVID-19 will very certainly exacerbate inequalities in health, economy, development, science and technology, and society. COVID-19 will have spread globally, putting low-income countries at risk of health system failure and increasing food insecurity. Mental health issues will become much more prevalent.

“We must not take a narrow view of the pandemic or minimize its impacts beyond public health, otherwise inequities will grow, and the broader consequences will be felt in every society in every country,” says Peter Gluckman, President of the International Science Council (ISC), emphasizing the need for a more comprehensive, international response to emergencies.

“To ensure a resilient and more equitable future, we must find ways that embolden effective international collaboration in addressing global threats. Additionally, the report aims to assist all governments  in exploring appropriate responses in the broad interests of all their citizens and societies.”

In a more gloomy scenario, the globe faces severe societal harm, including long-term school closures, unemployment, and an increase in gender-based violence. Growing nationalism and division will stymie international cooperation on immunizations and commerce, resulting in conflict. Despite the worsening of climate change, many countries will backtrack environmental reforms in order to mitigate the economic impact of COVID-19 in this scenario.

“The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the value of international scientific cooperation, even in the face of cascading environmental risks and geopolitical tensions,” adds Mami Mizutori, Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction.

“We must renew efforts to build a multilateral system that addresses inequalities while preparing us for the next crisis. Whether it be another pandemic, climate change, or conflict, we have the chance to learn from the last two years. If not, the Sustainable Development Goals will slip out of reach.”

The ISC study emphasizes the importance of seeing these effects as interrelated and cumulative. When one policy dimension deviates, another may follow suit.

For example, lost schooling, which was one of the spheres hardest hit by the pandemic, could have far-reaching consequences till the end of the century, costing up to $17 trillion in lost earnings over the lifetime of a generation of students and exacerbating mental health difficulties.

The pandemic’s economic impact has already been felt. More than 8% of working hours were lost in 2020, equating to 255 million full-time jobs. A recent study covering 204 nations and territories estimated that the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an additional 53.2 million instances of major depressive disorder and an additional 76.2 million cases of anxiety disorder globally, contributing to a mental health catastrophe.

Furthermore, the research emphasizes the need to address disinformation concerns and improve different scientific advice systems in order to increase faith in science and safeguard communities from acute health hazards and social cohesiveness.

While the crisis has highlighted the importance of bringing scientists and governments together, the authors conclude that much more needs to be done – particularly by policymakers – to avoid future worst-case situations, particularly for low- and middle-income nations. In addition to vaccine distribution, national and global policy issues should address rising global inequities in inclusive governance, economic recovery, and the digital and educational divide.

The analysis found that the pandemic’s future trajectory, as well as its far-reaching implications, would be determined by policy decisions made now, which have the capacity to either reduce or prolong the crisis, as well as ameliorate or exacerbate its effects.

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