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U.S. population grew by only 0.1% in 2020-21: “I was expecting low growth but nothing this low”

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According to numbers released Tuesday, the United States’ population growth rate fell to its lowest level since the country’s birth during the first year of the pandemic, as the coronavirus curbed immigration, delayed pregnancies, and killed hundreds of thousands of Americans.

The U.S. population grew by only 0.1 percent between July 2020 and July 2021, with an additional 392,665 people added to the total population.

For years, the United States has seen modest population growth, but the pandemic has worsened that trend. This year marked the first time since 1937 that the country’s population increased by less than one million people.

“I was expecting low growth but nothing this low,” says William Frey, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s metropolitan policy program, Brookings Metro.

“It tells us that this pandemic has had a huge impact on us in all kinds of ways, and now demography.”

Once the pandemic is under control, the United States may witness a decline in mortality, but population growth is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels due to fewer births. According to Frey, this will enhance the need for immigration by younger workers whose taxes can sustain systems such as Social Security.

“We have an aging population and that means fewer women in child-bearing ages,” Frey adds. “We see younger people putting off having children and they’re going to have fewer children.”

The population estimates are derived from the number of births, deaths, and migration in the United States. For the first time, international migration outpaced natural growth caused by more births than deaths. International migration resulted in a net gain of almost 245,000 residents, but new births outnumber deaths by just about 148,000.

Kenneth Johnson, a demographer at the University of New Hampshire, called the reduction in natural population growth “stunning,” noting that it was the smallest spread of births over deaths in more than 80 years.

“Of course most of this is COVID, but not all of it,” Johnson adds. “U.S. natural increase was already at a low ebb prior to COVID with the fertility rate hitting a new record low each year and deaths steadily rising due to the population aging.”

Between 2020 and 2021, 33 states experienced population growth, mostly due to domestic migration, while 17 states and the District of Columbia experienced population loss.

The Mountain West states experienced the most year-over-year growth, with Idaho increasing by nearly 3 percent and Utah and Montana each increasing by 1.7 percent. The District of Columbia lost 2.9 percent of its population, while New York and Illinois shed 1.6 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively.

While the outbreak provided individuals with the opportunity to work remotely, data released last month by the Census Bureau showed that there was no significant movement in the United States as a result of it.

Image Credit: Getty

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